Short- and medium-term impacts of strict anti-contagion policies on non-COVID-19 mortality in China.

The effects of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) public health policies on non-COVID-19-related mortality are unclear. Here, using death registries based on 300 million Chinese people and a difference-in-differences design, we find that China's strict anti-contagion policies during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced non-COVID-19 mortality outside Wuhan (by 4.6%). The health benefits persisted and became even greater after the measures were loosened: mortality was reduced by 12.5% in the medium term. Significant changes in people's behaviours (for example, wearing masks and practising social distancing) and reductions in air pollution and traffic accidents could have driven these results. We estimate that 54,000 lives could have been saved from non-COVID-19 causes during the 50 days of strict policies and 293,000 in the subsequent 115 days. The results suggest that virus countermeasures not only effectively controlled COVID-19 in China but also brought about unintended and substantial public health benefits.

Epidemiology of paediatric injuries in Nepal: evidence from emergency department injury surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Globally, injuries cause >5 million deaths annually and children and young people are particularly vulnerable. Injuries are the leading cause of death in people aged 5-24 years and a leading cause of disability. In most low-income and middle-income countries where the majority of global child injury burden occurs, systems for routinely collecting injury data are limited. METHODS: A new model of injury surveillance for use in emergency departments in Nepal was designed and piloted. Data from patients presenting with injuries were collected prospectively over 12 months and used to describe the epidemiology of paediatric injury presentations. RESULTS: The total number of children <18 years of age presenting with injury was 2696, representing 27% of all patients presenting with injuries enrolled. Most injuries in children presenting to the emergency departments in this study were unintentional and over half of children were <10 years of age. Falls, animal bites/stings and road traffic injuries accounted for nearly 75% of all injuries with poisonings, burns and drownings presenting proportionately less often. Over half of injuries were cuts, bites and open wounds. In-hospital child mortality from injury was 1%. CONCLUSION: Injuries affecting children in Nepal represent a significant burden. The data on injuries observed from falls, road traffic injuries and injuries related to animals suggest potential areas for injury prevention. This is the biggest prospective injury surveillance study in Nepal in recent years and supports the case for using injury surveillance to monitor child morbidity and mortality through improved data.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on e-bike safety in China via multi-output and clustering-based regression models.

The impacts of COVID-19 on travel demand, traffic congestion, and traffic safety are attracting heated attention. However, the influence of the pandemic on electric bike (e-bike) safety has not been investigated. This paper fills the research gap by analyzing how COVID-19 affects China's e-bike safety based on a province-level dataset containing e-bike safety metrics, socioeconomic information, and COVID-19 cases from 2017 to 2020. Multi-output regression models are adopted to investigate the overall impact of COVID-19 on e-bike safety in China. Clustering-based regression models are used to examine the heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 and the other explanatory variables in different provinces/municipalities. This paper confirms the high relevance between COVID-19 and the e-bike safety condition in China. The number of COVID-19 cases has a significant negative effect on the number of e-bike fatalities/injuries at the country level. Moreover, two clusters of provinces/municipalities are identified: one (cluster 1) with lower and the other (cluster 2 that includes Hubei province) higher number of e-bike fatalities/injuries. In the clustering-based regressions, the absolute coefficients of the COVID-19 feature for cluster 2 are much larger than those for cluster 1, indicating that the pandemic could significantly reduce e-bike safety issues in provinces with more e-bike fatalities/injuries.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on acute trauma patients seen at the National Hospital Trauma Centre Abuja, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: trauma is the leading cause of mortality in individuals less than 45 years. The principles of Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) which is used around the world in resuscitation of trauma patients have been considered to be safe. However, the outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected the processes and characteristics of acute trauma patients seen around the world. This study is intended to determine the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the acute trauma patients seen in a Nigerian trauma centre. METHODS: this is a cross-sectional observational study of trauma patients seen in the resuscitation room of the National Hospital trauma centre in Abuja, Nigeria, from 24th February,2020 to 3rd May, 2020. The participants were consecutive acute trauma patients who were grouped into two: five weeks preceding total lockdown and five weeks of total lockdown. Statistical analysis was done using the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 24.0 while results were presented in tables and a figure. RESULTS: a total of 229 patients were recruited into the study with age range 1 to 62 years, mean age of 28 ± 13 and male to female ratio of 3.87. The patient volume reduced by 41.31% during the lockdown. Though motor vehicular crash (MVC) was the predominant mechanism of injury in both groups making up 37.65% and 23.88% respectively, penetrating assault was more during the lockdown period (17.91% versus 6.17%). The lockdown was further associated with more delayed presentation (52.24% versus 48.15%), more referrals (53.73% versus 32.72%), less severe injury score (29.6% versus 56.7%) and no death in the resuscitation room (0% versus 1.85%). CONCLUSION: despite the reduction in the volume of trauma presentations by 41.31%, patients got the required care with less mortality. Efforts should be directed at sustaining access to acute trauma care in all circumstances to reduce preventable trauma deaths.

The impact of COVID-19 infection on outcomes after injury in a state trauma system.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the health care system in 2020. COVID-19 infection has been associated with poor outcomes after orthopedic surgery and elective, general surgery, but the impact of COVID-19 on outcomes after trauma is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to Pennsylvania trauma centers from March 21 to July 31, 2020. The exposure of interest was COVID-19 (COV+) and the primary outcome was inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes were length of stay and complications. We compared demographic and injury characteristics between positive, negative, and not-tested patients. We used multivariable regression with coarsened exact matching to estimate the impact of COV+ on outcomes. RESULTS: Of 15,550 included patients, 8,170 (52.5%) were tested for COVID-19 and 219 (2.7%) were positive (COV+). Compared with COVID-19-negative (COV-) patients, COV+ patients were similar in terms of age and sex, but were less often white (53.5% vs. 74.7%, p < 0.0001), and more often uninsured (10.1 vs. 5.6%, p = 0.002). Injury severity was similar, but firearm injuries accounted for 11.9% of COV+ patients versus 5.1% of COV- patients (p < 0.001). Unadjusted mortality for COV+ was double that of COV- patients (9.1% vs. 4.7%, p < 0.0001) and length of stay was longer (median, 5 vs. 4 days; p < 0.001). Using coarsened exact matching, COV+ patients had an increased risk of death (odds ratio [OR], 6.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.29-15.99), any complication (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.08-3.16), and pulmonary complications (OR, 5.79; 95% CI, 2.02-16.54) compared with COV- patients. CONCLUSION: Patients with concomitant traumatic injury and COVID-19 infection have elevated risks of morbidity and mortality. Trauma centers must incorporate an understanding of these risks into patient and family counseling and resource allocation during this pandemic. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, Prognostic Study.

Excess mortality in Wuhan city and other parts of China during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak: findings from nationwide mortality registries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess excess all cause and cause specific mortality during the three months (1 January to 31 March 2020) of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) outbreak in Wuhan city and other parts of China. DESIGN: Nationwide mortality registries. SETTING: 605 urban districts and rural counties in China's nationally representative Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) system. PARTICIPANTS: More than 300 million people of all ages. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Observed overall and weekly mortality rates from all cause and cause specific diseases for three months (1 January to 31 March 2020) of the covid-19 outbreak compared with the predicted (or mean rates for 2015-19) in different areas to yield rate ratio. RESULTS: The DSP system recorded 580 819 deaths from January to March 2020. In Wuhan DSP districts (n=3), the observed total mortality rate was 56% (rate ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 1.87) higher than the predicted rate (1147 v 735 per 100 000), chiefly as a result of an eightfold increase in deaths from pneumonia (n=1682; 275 v 33 per 100 000; 8.32, 5.19 to 17.02), mainly covid-19 related, but a more modest increase in deaths from certain other diseases, including cardiovascular disease (n=2347; 408 v 316 per 100 000; 1.29, 1.05 to 1.65) and diabetes (n=262; 46 v 25 per 100 000; 1.83, 1.08 to 4.37). In Wuhan city (n=13 districts), 5954 additional (4573 pneumonia) deaths occurred in 2020 compared with 2019, with excess risks greater in central than in suburban districts (50% v 15%). In other parts of Hubei province (n=19 DSP areas), the observed mortality rates from pneumonia and chronic respiratory diseases were non-significantly 28% and 23% lower than the predicted rates, despite excess deaths from covid-19 related pneumonia. Outside Hubei (n=583 DSP areas), the observed total mortality rate was non-significantly lower than the predicted rate (675 v 715 per 100 000), with significantly lower death rates from pneumonia (0.53, 0.46 to 0.63), chronic respiratory diseases (0.82, 0.71 to 0.96), and road traffic incidents (0.77, 0.68 to 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Except in Wuhan, no increase in overall mortality was found during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak in other parts of China. The lower death rates from certain non-covid-19 related diseases might be attributable to the associated behaviour changes during lockdown.